The DRAMeXchange survey pointed out that as the Sino-US trade dispute heats up, the demand for smartphones and servers in 2019 will be lower than originally expected. In addition, CPU shortages in the first half of the year still have a slight impact on notebook shipments. Therefore, eMMC/UFS, SSD and other products in the third quarter of the peak season shipments may not be as expected, contract price decline is difficult.
In the first half of 2019, OEM focused on various types of products to reduce inventory, and the momentum of stocking was weak. The average price of NAND Flash contracts has fallen by nearly 20% for two consecutive quarters. It has not emerged as the market expects to rebound due to price elasticity.
Looking forward to the third quarter, Jibang Consulting said that despite the international situation, the demand situation will still improve, the contract price decline has the opportunity to shrink, on the other hand, the supplier's inventory level is still not fully resolved, the second half of the shipment will be afraid Downgrade, so it is not easy to see the contract price rebound.
According to the mainstream eMMC/UFS and SSD, the demand for smart phones and notebook manufacturers is expected to increase in the third quarter. In addition, the previous two quarters have undergone a large price correction, so the contract price is expected to decline. It will converge in the previous two quarters, with a drop of about 10%.
In terms of product manufacturing, eMMC/UFS, which is dominated by the mobile device market, will still be based on 64/72-layer 3D NAND. The visibility of 92/96-layer 3D NAND is higher in the Client SSD, which helps the cost to continue to decline.
In the channel market Wafer contract price, the current transaction price is quite close to the cash cost, the supplier has limited space for further price reduction, so the strategy will be based on eMMC/UFS, SSD and other product demand as the priority negotiation target. Unless the stock level is unbearable, there will be no positive action on the Wafer contract price, and some suppliers are expecting to lead the 256Gb product back to the profit level.
Jibang Consulting believes that due to the weak market conditions, Wafer's price rebound is less likely, and the decline in the next few months is expected to remain within 5%.